Cercle Cyclope

It is still too early to draw conclusions about 2024, but the main trends are already evident: in the markets, breakfast undeniably reigns supreme, with the recent coffee frenzy (reminiscent of the historic freeze of 1976 and the epic rise of the Bogota cartel), the rebound of cocoa once again, orange juice, and the resilience of sugar.
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Summer 2024 was hot! It was hot from a climate perspective with global temperature records. Elsewhere in the world, tensions have continued to escalate: a new front has opened in Russia around Kursk. (the emblematic site of the largest tank battle of World War II); the war in Gaza continues, with failed ceasefire talks and Israeli strikes in Tehran and Lebanon; election manipulation in Venezuela and power consolidation by Maduro; tensions between China and the Philippines over a few islets; an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s withdrawal, and the dramatic rise of the Democratic ticket Harris/Walz; the fall of the Prime Minister in Bangladesh; and still, the ongoing war in Sudan (the worst humanitarian disaster of this century) and the chronic instability of the Sahel region. The façade of Olympic fraternity didn’t last long (but has it ever been otherwise?).
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After the cocoa around Easter, the month of May – quite cool and damp in Europe – was marked by some craziness in the copper market, a record for orange juice, another for gold, and a fluttering of wheat prices.
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Voilà la fin de l’hiver ! Une nouvelle fois, il a été plutôt clément dans l’hémisphère nord et en particulier en Europe qui, par exemple, le termine avec un niveau de stock de gaz record (58,72 %). C’est peut-être là l’une des seules conséquences positives du changement climatique que de rendre la transition moins douloureuse en donnant un avantage financier au gaz naturel qui reste, à notre sens, le maillon nécessaire entre le temps des fossiles et celui des renouvelables.
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